The New Zealand Alpine Fault: Are we prepared?
A major rupture of the Alpine Fault is likely, with current estimates at 75% within the next 50 years.
Any major rupture is expected to cause widespread structural damage to the region and cut off critical infrastructure, isolating parts of the South Island for several weeks to months.
Ongoing research, detailed hazard mapping, and locally developed loss models—supported by strong collaboration between the research, risk management, and insurance sectors—are enabling New Zealand to better understand the Alpine Fault hazard and apply lessons from recent earthquakes (such as the 2010–11 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikōura events) to strengthen resilience and preparedness for future major ruptures.
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